Start with the CAC equation (and split it)
CAC usually drifts upward for one of two reasons: acquisition cost goes up, or conversion quality goes down. Instead of treating CAC as one number, split it into a small set of controllable inputs.
- Cost side: CPM/CPC, impression share, auction pressure, creative fatigue.
- Conversion side: click-to-lead rate, lead-to-meeting rate, meeting-to-close rate.
- Mix side: channel and campaign mix shifting toward colder audiences or lower intent.
Find where the break started
Pick the earliest date where CAC meaningfully moved and work backward one step at a time. Avoid weekly averages if volume is low—use rolling 7–14 day windows.
If spend is stable
Look for conversion degradation: landing page changes, offer changes, routing delays, or sales follow-up gaps.
If spend increased
Check marginal efficiency: scaling often pushes you into less efficient auctions and audiences unless creative and targeting expand.
Use leading indicators, not just pipeline
Pipeline is a lagging indicator. By the time it dips, the damage has already happened. Track leading indicators that move within days.
- CTR and thumb-stop rate (creative health)
- CPC and landing page view rate (traffic quality)
- Lead-to-first-response time (speed-to-lead)
- Meeting rate by source (qualification health)
A simple recovery plan you can run this week
- Isolate: pause obvious underperformers and separate campaigns by intent level.
- Refresh: ship 3–5 new creative angles (not just new designs) to fight fatigue.
- Fix conversion leaks: tighten the landing page offer, form friction, and follow-up SLA.
- Measure: compare cohorts (new vs returning, high intent vs low intent) to verify the source of the lift.
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